How have formulation strategies adapted to enhance supply chain resilience in response to recent and recurring disruptions (e.g., COVID-19, natural disasters, geopolitical tensions)?

Fortunately, formulation strategies have always been to create the most resilient formulas and to avoid relying on single material sources. Regardless of disasters and scarcities, the best formulas can accommodate, to a degree, substituted materials as coping with shortages has always been part of a formulator's skill set. Scarcities are not new. In the early 2000s jojoba oil yields were impacted by drought, olive derived squalane almost disappeared when, among other factors, the popularity of the Mediterranean diet caused a run on extra virgin olive oil, (the source of olive squalane), and recently we saw the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on sunflower oil. And it is not just shortages that require formulators to revisit formulas. Today, as brands journey towards reducing their carbon footprints and becoming more sustainable, they will be adjusting formulas. Other reasons for reformulating include improving a products performance, reacting to material costs or following product recalls. Formulator’s strategy is, and always has been, to stay informed, work closely with their procurement team who will wisely, want to sauce from multiple sources, and together build solid relationships with suppliers.

The COVID-19 pandemic was very different. Suddenly, not one but many materials became scarce. This crisis created the ideal situation for deception and fraud. Desperate companies became very vulnerable. How could they be sure that the material being offered from a new source, had not been exchanged or tampered with on its journey through the supply chain? Did the material really come from the sustainable source as claimed? No industry has ever been safe from this type of fraud, which is why specifications are so important. They need to highlight the identifying characteristics along with the properties critical for successful manufacture.

Specifications which miss a critical parameter leave the whole supply chain exposed. Back in 2003 researchers at Kew analysed thirty-eight trade samples of sandalwood essential oils, all of which were within the supplier’s specification, but none complied with the internationally recognised standard of a 90% santalol content (1). More importantly, specifications, nor for that matter the certificates of origin, do not prove where a material originated. The dark economy continues to grow and yet no brand consciously chooses to use their materials. Materials from unethical sources are not building up in warehouses so they must be entering supply chains fraudulently.

The pandemic nightmare exposed supply chain weaknesses and demonstrated that true resilience requires rigorous authentication protocols that go far beyond checking accompanying paperwork and relying on periodic audits.

How do more recent trade barriers, tariffs, and import/export restrictions impact the global supply chain for personal care products. What strategies can be used to mitigate these risks? Can localizing supply chains—such as sourcing ingredients regionally—help mitigate risks, and what trade-offs does this present in formulation

Unforeseen consequences of REACh regulations, the UK leaving the EU single market, and now the recent changing trade relationships and strategic tariff policies around the globe, have left companies trading across borders, facing mountains of extra paperwork, increased costs and delays and an unacceptable level of uncertainty as to what to expect next. Cost saving practices such as having gift sets packed where labour is cheaper are now far less attractive. AI and digitization are helping to transform this complex challenge into a manageable process, while recent trade policies, such as U.S. tariffs, have encouraged brands to manufacture and source when it is possible, in their main markets. This shift toward domestic production not only reduces supply chain vulnerabilities but also enables companies to reduce carbon footprints. Interestingly, in a few situations where the origin of a material is local, but it has travelled across borders to be further processed, transparent, verifiable supply chains can deliver a cost benefit. For example, in textiles, brands can bypass significant tariffs when they can document that product entering the U.S. market, such as towels and sheets, contain domestically grown American cotton.

How have rising material costs affected formulation and pricing? How can formulators balance cost pressures from clients/brands with consumer expectations for quality and affordability?

In 2021 - 2023, UK prestige skincare prices increased by 7% due to rising costs of raw materials, packaging, shipping, and supply chain disruptions. Even value brands like The Ordinary, had to implement their first price increases in years. Consequently, consumers began trading down to more affordable mid-range brands. As already mentioned, rising material costs focusses formulators' efforts on using cheaper alternatives without impacting quality, however, as clinical trial results are tied to the original formula, reformulation is not always desirable. It is also worth noting that material costs are the same for mass market and prestige brands but companies buying larger amounts do get better prices. If reformulating with lower levels means moving to buying at smaller amounts that cost more per kg, then it might not actually be a cost saving. Also, reducing expenditure of the formula will only have a marginal impact on the final cost of the finished product, particularly for prestige brands, where most of the expenditure goes on advertising, marketing, and packaging rather than on the formulation. Shrinkflation as a strategy, is only tempting if product costs are a large proportion of the retail price, such as for some professional products.

What challenges do formulators and brands face in sourcing sustainable raw materials for personal care, and how can they ensure ethical, environmentally responsible, and verifiable supply chains? How is sustainability influencing ingredient sourcing and supply chain innovation (e.g., authentication technologies, blockchain), and what strategies can support true transparency in response to growing consumer demand for traceable, ethical products?

The challenge is to know the facts. If you claim it, can you prove it? Inconsistent certification standards and difficulties verifying environmental claims leave sustainable brands at risk. Not having 100% transparency means there are 'dark' areas in supply chains where malpractices can take place. Relying on trust and having secrecy and proprietary interests in a supply chain puts everyone at greater risk. Brands cannot be everywhere, but they can work with companies specialising in providing supply chain transparency, who in turn can respect commercial interests. These companies are finding that a frighteningly large number of sustainability claims lack complete verification. A simple audit is not good enough. Be honest, all of us rush around checking and correcting practices before the auditors arrive, only to relax and sigh with relief when they leave. It is this period of relaxation when fraud and errors are most likely to take place.

100% transparency is something I feel strongly about. As mentioned earlier, the dark economy is growing. Their adulterated materials and unethical practices are part of legitimate channels. When complete transparency is achieved, the opportunity for criminals disappears. Then and only then, will consumers’ ethical choices lead to significant reductions in modern slavery, habitat destruction and other corrupt practices.

Leading brands are addressing the challenges of achieving complete transparency through integrated authentication systems that combine blockchain documentation with physical traceability markers and real-time monitoring to create immutable records of sustainable material movement. The origin of otherwise identical materials can be proved with techniques such as isotope analyses. These science-backed authentication tools provide procurement teams with verified supplier metrics, formulators with availability-forecasts, marketing with authenticated provenance data, and product development with sustainability metrics, circular economy initiatives and carbon-impact.

How can brands, formulators, suppliers, procurement teams, product developers, marketing, etc. collaborate to ensure a more predictable and efficient supply chain

Collaboration is key. Everyone involved needs to appreciate that a 'web' of secure supply chains is not a nice to have. It is a must have. The ‘how’ is through sharing information using the same data systems and agreeing on common objectives such as sustainability. One important caveat on sharing common data systems is, because programmers are human and unregulated, people with varying levels of competence are writing software. Recent computer centred scandals (e.g. Horizon IT scandal involving the UK Post Office) and the increasing number of successful hacking incidents, including introducing ransomware, are ruining lives and costing companies millions. They have also revealed profound weaknesses in programming. A study commissioned by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology concluded that "software bugs, or errors, are so prevalent and so detrimental that they cost the US economy an estimated $59 billion annually (2). It cannot therefore be over stressed, how important it is to validate software using, Red team level security testing. In the Horizon IT scandal, Fujitsu had not disclosed that they knew about the "hundreds" of bugs. 100% transparency in safe resilient supply chains includes reporting software issues.

Finally, lean supply chains with strict "Just-in-Time" practices need to be more flexible with reserves of materials ready as backup buffers for emergencies.

How do supply chain disruptions impact the formulation process, and what notable examples demonstrate how ingredient shortages have driven reformulation or production challenges? Have sourcing limitations led to innovations such as the use of alternative ingredients or new formulation techniques?

Difficulties sourcing sun filters during the pandemic, made Caudalie decide to reformulate their entire suncare line. They took the opportunity to improve protection and to removed silicones, PEGs, and other materials that might be at risk should regulations change. Similarly, to maintain product availability P&G reformulated Olay and Crest using alternative suppliers. Ingredient shortages inspire raw material sourcing. For example, the shift away from shark-derived squalene (due to ethical concerns) in the early 2010s meant more brands turned to plant-based alternatives, particularly olive-derived squalane. Then as mentioned earlier, demands for virgin oil in health diets created a new shortage and in response, biotechnology stepped in to provide sugarcane-derived squalane. Recently, when the only supplier of sugarcane squalane was taken over by another company, supplies dwindled as the new company took over the production leaving formulators to switched back to previous sources of squalane.

How can AI and other digital technologies enhance transparency, traceability, and efficiency in the personal care supply chain and product development process? How do tools like predictive analytics and digital twins improve inventory management, forecasting, and sustainability outcomes? Are there any notable examples in current industry use?

Building upon the integrated authentication systems previously discussed, AI specifically enhances these transparency solutions through predictive demand modelling, anomaly detection in supply chains, and automated sustainability scoring. Machine learning algorithms are already being used to analyse past inventory patterns to optimize stock levels, while digital twins simulate product development scenarios to reduce waste. Current examples include Unilever's use of AI for optimising ingredient sourcing and L'Oréal's predictive analytics platform that reduced forecast errors by 30%. These AI-powered tools complement the blockchain documentation and physical traceability infrastructure by adding predictive capabilities and deeper data insights.

With consumer demand and environmental pressures evolving, how can formulators help ensure that supply chains remain agile and resilient to meet emerging trends? What do you see as the key supply chain challenges for personal care formulation over the next 5 to 10 years, and how should brands begin preparing now—particularly in light of climate risk, regulatory complexity, and the demand for transparency?

There is no doubt that within the next 5-10 years, we will experience more and more extreme weather events, with climate change causing shortages and threatening the regions where large number of cosmetic materials come from. Future-proofing ingredient sourcing is therefore essential. Biotechnology and green chemistry hold many of the answers as they can provide the relatively small amounts of material, compared to the food industry, that sustains the beauty industry. Bioreactors can upcycle waste materials, create new natural ingredients, be located close to manufacturing, and they are not directly affected by climate. By choosing to use biotechnology now, formulators will be investing in the future. In 10 years, transparency will be expected by both regulators and consumers. Success takes a team so brands should prepare now by forging wide strategic partnerships that include universities and companies specialising in providing supply chain transparency. They should work with experts to build safe digital infrastructure with integrated authentication systems that enable complete ingredient traceability from source to shelf.

What lessons from other industries (such as food, pharma, or fashion) could be applied to strengthen supply chain resilience in the personal care sector?

The personal care sector can learn from these industries’ mistakes. For example, the food industry implemented blockchain traceability only after the 2013 horsemeat scandals eroded consumer trust. The pharma sector's response to deadly contaminated heparin was to establish rigorous multi-tier supplier verification, which provides a template for preventing ingredient adulteration. Fashion's tragic awakening after the Rana Plaza factory collapse, demonstrates why proactive supply chain mapping beyond tier-1 suppliers, is essential. Meanwhile, the tech industry's initial resistance to conflict mineral transparency, until legally mandated, serves as a cautionary tale for cosmetic ingredients. In each case, the industry involved implemented robust controls only after failures caused harm. So, the lesson for the personal care sector is to be proactive and adopt and adapt these types of measures for its supply chains, now.

How do regulatory changes across different regions impact ingredient sourcing and formulation strategies? What steps can formulators take to stay ahead of evolving compliance requirements?

To protect your business, be actively involved or maintain close relationships with those working on compliance requirements. Since regulations typically take time to move from development to implementation, stay informed throughout the process so you have adequate time to prepare for the changes

One important point that has not been covered in the answers so far is the strength of the law. The UK Modern Slavery Act and the USA Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), which prohibits the importation of goods produced in Xinjiang, China, or by entities linked to forced labour, have very strict penalties ranging from stiff fines to life imprisonment. Fortunately, there are online information and tools to help formulators comply. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/30/contents and www.responsiblesourcingtool.org